UK Land-Based Gambling Sector Faces Proposed Machine Games Duty Increase Ahead of 2026 Budget

Grainne Hurst, chief executive of the UK’s Betting and Gaming Council, issued a direct warning that plans to raise Machine Games Duty from 20% to 40% on land-based gaming machines carry risks of substantial job losses and venue closures across betting shops and casinos, while the cited EY economic modelling points to a potential net loss for the Treasury of £124 million once secondary effects from reduced operations take hold.

Details of the Proposed Duty Adjustment

The adjustment under consideration would double the existing rate applied to gaming machines in physical locations, and this shift arrives against a backdrop of already climbing operational expenses for venues that include higher energy bills along with staffing and compliance requirements. Industry representatives have highlighted that such a change would affect thousands of sites that rely on these machines as a core revenue stream, and the timing places the discussion squarely before the Autumn Budget scheduled for October 28, 2026.

Projected Employment and Venue Impacts

According to the figures presented, up to 16,000 positions could disappear if the higher duty rate proceeds, while nearly 1,500 betting shops and as many as 34 casinos might shutter their doors once the increased costs render continued operation unviable for many operators. Observers note that these closures would concentrate in areas where footfall already faces pressure from online alternatives, yet the land-based sector still supports significant local employment and community activity through its physical presence.

Economic Modelling from the EY Report

The EY analysis, referenced directly in the statements from the Betting and Gaming Council, concludes that the Treasury stands to collect £124 million less in overall revenue once the knock-on effects of venue closures and reduced machine usage are factored in, and this projection accounts for lost corporation tax, national insurance contributions, and other fiscal streams that currently flow from the sector. Data within the modelling shows that the initial uplift in Machine Games Duty receipts would be more than offset by the shrinkage in the taxable base, while rising costs already squeezing margins accelerate the pace of potential exits from the market.

Those who have reviewed the report emphasise that the modelling incorporates September 2026 data on current trading conditions, and it demonstrates how an isolated tax increase on one segment of the industry can trigger wider contraction when venues operate under simultaneous cost pressures from multiple directions.

Industry Response and Call for Broader Review

Leaders within the Betting and Gaming Council have urged policymakers to weigh the full economic footprint of the duty rise rather than focusing solely on the headline tax rate, and they point to the interconnected nature of employment, supply chains, and local authority revenues that depend on stable venue operations. The statements stress that any decision made in the run-up to the October 28, 2026 Budget should reflect these downstream consequences, because the sector contributes through multiple tax channels beyond Machine Games Duty alone.

Context Within the Autumn Budget Timeline

Discussions around the duty adjustment form part of preparations for the Autumn Budget, and Grainne Hurst’s intervention comes at a point when government departments are finalising revenue forecasts for the coming fiscal year. The EY figures provide one set of projections for consideration, and they sit alongside existing data on participation trends and venue profitability that the Treasury will evaluate before final policy choices are confirmed.

Conclusion

The warning delivered by the Betting and Gaming Council CEO centres on concrete projections of 16,000 job losses, 1,500 betting shop closures, 34 casino closures, and a £124 million net revenue shortfall for the Treasury, all drawn from the EY modelling of a Machine Games Duty increase from 20% to 40%. These outcomes remain tied to decisions expected in the Autumn Budget on October 28, 2026, and the analysis incorporates September 2026 trading conditions to illustrate how the proposed change could reshape the land-based gaming landscape through reduced overall collections once closures occur.